Updated forecasts

We are today updating our forecasts for the global economy. Halfway through 2015, the global economy has disappointed us again.

We now predict that growth will come to 1¾ in the industrial countries and 4 per cent in the emerging economies, both of which are ½ percentage point lower than the estimates in our January report. This is mainly due to disappointingly weak growth in the USA and China in the beginning of the year. The world, especially the industrial countries, will continue to be characterised by overcapacity and limited wage and price pressure and thereby also low short and long-term interest rates, even though rate hikes in the USA and UK are moving closer.

Oil prices will rise but to much lower levels than before. The economic slowdown in Norway will consequently last longer and unemployment will peak at a higher level than would otherwise have been case. The outlook is also more uncertain than it was at the beginning of the year.

» Download the report for details (pdf)