The oil price has fallen markedly and a due to a lower price we have revised our growth estimates for the OECD countries slightly up.
Growth in emerging economies, primarily Russia and China, have been revised down. As the emerging economies are growing fast, their weight in global economy have increased and in total, this leaves our global growth estimate more or less unchanged relative to August.
The lower oil price also affects the Norwegian economy. We now expect a total decline in oil investments of nearly 30 per cent in the period from 2014 to 2017, before increasing oil prices again will lift investments somewhat. Lower activity growth and higher unemployment will dampen household’s consumption, and we now expect consumption growth below 2 per cent next year. Consumption growth is also expecte to remain muted in the years thereafter. In total we expect the mainland economy to grow by 1.2 per cent next year, before gradually picking up towards 2.5% growth in 2018.
» Read more in the report for details (pdf)